Azor anticyclone dominating weather in Europe

Most of Europe is currently under the influence of a major Azor anticyclone which does not allow any trough to pass through central and southern Europe. It does not look like the pattern will change in the next 7-10 days, but GFS was offering some hope yesterday when it forecast a nice trough with serious setup potential. We will see how that develops. Meanwhile the SSTs in the Mediterranean sea are currently somewhat stagnant but will rise during this pattern of warm weather.

A lot of CAPE will be available for the storms is next days across most of Europe but given the basically non-existent shear there is no severe weather threat at least 7-10 days ahead. Azor anticyclone is just too strong currently. There could be some nice lightning displays though.

Severe weather weekly forecast for central Europe 25.4. - 1.5. 2011

Week 5 : April 25th - May 1st

High pressure system still mostly dominates Europe. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast across most of central and eastern Europe for Monday. Marginal cape is available in those areas with the largest CAPE (around 500-600 J/kg) in N-Italy, Slovenia and Hungary. Weak DLS will prevent severe weather with the exception of a small jet-stream above Slovakia, Austria and Poland where 20 m/s is present and could produce some large hail and/or strong wind. Strong convergence is present along the Dinaric mountains in Slovenia and eastern Alps region in Austria towards Hungary. This is where the convection will likely fire first.

With the maximum temperatures around 20°C later this week, severe weather will be diminished, but the potential returns in the beginning of May, when GFS is drawing some interesting setups.

Severe weather weekly forecast for CTRL-Europe 18.4. - 24.4. 2011

Week 4 : April 18th - April 24th

Huge anticyclonic system is currently in place and will dominate the weather in central Europe in the next 1-2 weeks. There will some scattered instability (not larger than 500-600 J/kg) but due to non-existent wind shear no severe weather will happen. Very stable weather is expected, in fact, looking at the picture lower, I have not yet seen this kind of agreeing between different GFS ensemble runs. Usually, they are all over the place. This time, even 14 days ahead, all ensembles are relatively closely together. Plan a picnic because no storm chasing is going to happen this week (and probably the next one). Well, it's April, what do you expect?

Sea temperature in the Mediterranean sea are still rather low and haven't warmed up significantly in the last weeks, still in the 15°C range.