LVL2 setup in N-Italy, N-Balkans

Estofex gave LVL2 for todays setup and I mostly agree with the forecast. Cold front moves through central Europe in late thursday/friday. Moisture pooling allows for high CAPE, while deep-layer shear seems to be in the 20 m/s range while CAPE is very local, up to 2500 J/kg. There is no severe veering wind profile, so the SREH3 seems to be limited, but the best areas seems to be in the FVG, CTRL-Slovenia and SE-Slovenia/N-Croatia where the wind is best. So supercells are very much possible and given the low PWAT values we could see some nice classic ones. Main dangers will be large hail and strong winds. I can't give an exact target area because the area of possible activity will be rather large, and initiation is possible anywhere. There is a rather strong convergence along the Dinaric mountain range, but it will be mostly capped, except for the NW part. All-in-all, a pretty favourable setup for storm-chasing but a very dangerous situation for general public, we could see some major damage.

Happy hunting!

Serious potential for strong (tornadic) supercells on June 18th in FVG, Italy

Estofex gave LVL2 for today in N-Italy and the setup really is very good. I won't really into details because time is not on my side. Just a quick writeup. 50 kt 0-6 km shear combined with good SFC winds with nice veering and moderate CAPE values suggests serious potential. The best potential is again in the FVG region where winds are the best. The cap is not small and there is no serious 10m convergence until 18Z so we will see if it can break it anyway. PWAT values are ridiculousy high, in the 42mm range, so everything points to (potentially tornadic) HP supercells. Good luck to everyone who will chase today. I won't be chasing because of college work. :(