Most of Europe is currently under the influence of a major Azor anticyclone which does not allow any trough to pass through central and southern Europe. It does not look like the pattern will change in the next 7-10 days, but GFS was offering some hope yesterday when it forecast a nice trough with serious setup potential. We will see how that develops. Meanwhile the SSTs in the Mediterranean sea are currently somewhat stagnant but will rise during this pattern of warm weather.
A lot of CAPE will be available for the storms is next days across most of Europe but given the basically non-existent shear there is no severe weather threat at least 7-10 days ahead. Azor anticyclone is just too strong currently. There could be some nice lightning displays though.
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