LVL2 setup in N-Italy, N-Balkans

Estofex gave LVL2 for todays setup and I mostly agree with the forecast. Cold front moves through central Europe in late thursday/friday. Moisture pooling allows for high CAPE, while deep-layer shear seems to be in the 20 m/s range while CAPE is very local, up to 2500 J/kg. There is no severe veering wind profile, so the SREH3 seems to be limited, but the best areas seems to be in the FVG, CTRL-Slovenia and SE-Slovenia/N-Croatia where the wind is best. So supercells are very much possible and given the low PWAT values we could see some nice classic ones. Main dangers will be large hail and strong winds. I can't give an exact target area because the area of possible activity will be rather large, and initiation is possible anywhere. There is a rather strong convergence along the Dinaric mountain range, but it will be mostly capped, except for the NW part. All-in-all, a pretty favourable setup for storm-chasing but a very dangerous situation for general public, we could see some major damage.

Happy hunting!

Follow up on the June 6th setup

For initial analysis view the previous post. Potential for the June 7th has vanished due to weak 0-6km shear. June 6th looks solid, the 500mb jet is going to be stronger than expected at first.

We are dealing with 35-45 kt 500mb jet through northern Croatia, Slovenia and NE-Italy, around 30kt @ 700mb, 20kt @ 850mb and around 10kt @ 925mb and 10m. Limiting factor is the unidirectional shear, which limits helicity, so supercells are possible, but not very likely. Storms will tend to get linear. Focus will be on the southern flanks of the lines for possible tail-end charlies. CAPE will range from 500 to 2000 J/kg according to WRF and GFS, locally maybe even more. Areas with high CAPE are forecast in CNTR-Italy, E-Slovenia and N-Croatia. No significant convergence lines other than above the Dinaric mountain range and the Alps are forecast, but the CINH will be rather small and with some daytime heating we should have no problem seeing breaking the cap. Similar conditions exist for E-Austria and W-Hungary.

Extreme bora in progress in SLO/CRO

Currently the winds are locally blowing over 160 km/h, even 180km/h reported. Extreme bora in progress along the Dinaric mountain range in Slovenia and Croatia. I'm not wind chasing today but it sure would be fun!

SW-Slovenia. Scale in bottom right in m/s. Forecast by ALADIN (ARSO).

Istra, W-Croatia.