Severe storms potential on Friday in FVG, Italy

Severe weather is expected on Friday afternoon in Italy, Austria, Slovenia and Hungary as the trough advances eastward. The trough will provide a 15-20 m/s 500mb jet and adequate lift on the front which comes in the late afternoon in N-Italy, N-Slovenia and W-Hungary. Models still do not agree with each other on how much CAPE will be available although they are starting to converge. GFS forecasts >1000 J/kg in NE-Slovenia, >1500 J/kg in N-Croatia and only a couple of hundred in central Italy with marginal CAPE in Friuli-Venezia region. ECMWF and GFS are drawing more CAPE in FVG region and less in NE-Slovenia.
The wind profile is great in the FVG region and a lot worse elsewhere. Medium SRH3 and nice veering suggest for potentially tornadic supercells. That will be basically the only interesting region. Other locations have more or less uni-directional shear so linear storms will probably be the primary mode. Still, large hail is definitely a danger, including severe wind gusts, but to a lesser extent, given the high moisture and PWAT values. High PWAT values also suggest HP supercells in the FVG region. With some low-level shear, tornado is not ruled out.

My biggest concern is the capped atmosphere in the FVG region. Elsewhere the cap will be broken rather easily. I remain somewhat sceptical for Italy. There is a strong convergence west of Venezia and Bologna, but the lack of serious lift in FVG region, the initiation prior to the front is questionable. Once the front comes, there will be no problem with initiation, but this will probably be rather late. I think the CIN will be in the 30-60J range and with the lack of serious convergence zones the initiation can be late.

The severe weather potential in NE-Slovenia and elsewhere along the front will be limited due to lack of low-level shear and these locations are probably not the best chasing targets.