Severe weather weekly forecast for central Europe - 28.3. to 4.4. 2011

From April on I'll be doing weekly forecasts for convective weather for central Europe. I will be analysing synoptic scale weather, severe convective situations and storm chasing opportunities for the upcoming week. Detailed analysis for especially interesting situations will be written in separate blog posts. Let's start.

Week 1: March 28th - April 3rd

Nothing particularly interesting in terms of severe weather is going to happen in the following week. Weak cold front will affect the weather in the beginning of the week but it is quickly going to bounce off with Tmax ranging from 15 to 20 °C in the next days all the way to the end of the week, when they will be topping 20°C. Dewpoints will remain low due to low moisture (around 7g/kg) barely topping 12°C. CAPE buildup will therefore be limited to a couple of hundred J/kg in higher moisture areas.
Sea temperatures are still low, but with warmer weather that will change soon. Northern Adriatic sea has about 10-11°C while Mediteranian sea has about 14°C.