Follow up on the June 6th setup

For initial analysis view the previous post. Potential for the June 7th has vanished due to weak 0-6km shear. June 6th looks solid, the 500mb jet is going to be stronger than expected at first.

We are dealing with 35-45 kt 500mb jet through northern Croatia, Slovenia and NE-Italy, around 30kt @ 700mb, 20kt @ 850mb and around 10kt @ 925mb and 10m. Limiting factor is the unidirectional shear, which limits helicity, so supercells are possible, but not very likely. Storms will tend to get linear. Focus will be on the southern flanks of the lines for possible tail-end charlies. CAPE will range from 500 to 2000 J/kg according to WRF and GFS, locally maybe even more. Areas with high CAPE are forecast in CNTR-Italy, E-Slovenia and N-Croatia. No significant convergence lines other than above the Dinaric mountain range and the Alps are forecast, but the CINH will be rather small and with some daytime heating we should have no problem seeing breaking the cap. Similar conditions exist for E-Austria and W-Hungary.