Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Severe weather potential for N-Italy, June 6th/7th

Weak trough passes through central Europe, showing some signs of storm potential. As I look at it now, the limiting factor will be the upper level flow, only at 30kts @ 500mb which is seriously borderline. Low level winds on the other hands are quite good, with good speeds and direction make up for a nice veering profile. Higher CAPE is forecast on June 7th with more marginal conditions on June 6th. The cap will be somewhat moderate, but with lack of surface convergence, initiation is questionable. WRF is even drawing a 10m wind divergence in FVG region. Stay tuned for updates and detailed analysis in the next few days.



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