Serious potential for strong (tornadic) supercells on June 18th in FVG, Italy

Estofex gave LVL2 for today in N-Italy and the setup really is very good. I won't really into details because time is not on my side. Just a quick writeup. 50 kt 0-6 km shear combined with good SFC winds with nice veering and moderate CAPE values suggests serious potential. The best potential is again in the FVG region where winds are the best. The cap is not small and there is no serious 10m convergence until 18Z so we will see if it can break it anyway. PWAT values are ridiculousy high, in the 42mm range, so everything points to (potentially tornadic) HP supercells. Good luck to everyone who will chase today. I won't be chasing because of college work. :(

Severe weather potential for N-Italy, June 6th/7th

Weak trough passes through central Europe, showing some signs of storm potential. As I look at it now, the limiting factor will be the upper level flow, only at 30kts @ 500mb which is seriously borderline. Low level winds on the other hands are quite good, with good speeds and direction make up for a nice veering profile. Higher CAPE is forecast on June 7th with more marginal conditions on June 6th. The cap will be somewhat moderate, but with lack of surface convergence, initiation is questionable. WRF is even drawing a 10m wind divergence in FVG region. Stay tuned for updates and detailed analysis in the next few days.